Assessment of the Potential Economic Impact of ELC Expansion in Scotland With a Regional Focus on Glasgow

Abstract

The Scottish Government has recently increased the provisioning of free childcare from 600 hours per annum for all three and four year olds, as well as eligible two year olds, to 1140 hours per annum. In addition to increasing the entitlement, the Scottish Government have pledged to make it more accessible and delivered to a uniformly excellent standard. There is thus a requirement for research to investigate and collate the rationale and economic impact of this policy of Early Learning and Childcare (ELC) expansion. This is crucial if policy recommendations are to be developed and the benefits of ELC to children, society, and the economy are to be fully realised in Scotland and elsewhere, This thesis will first quantitatively model the economic impacts in Scotland using Input-Output analysis before progressing to focus on the City of Glasgow, estimating the economic impacts on Scotland's largest regional economy and most populous city. As Input-Output analysis is a largely demand driven model that cannot provide any insights on the elasticity of supply, the focus on Glasgow will include primary
research to investigate workforce and capacity issues within the industry. The research questions the ability of the current modality of provisioning for Early Learning and Childcare in Scotland to achieve the long-term objectives of the policy. Findings suggest that whilst there are clear economic benefits from investing in Early Learning and Childcare there are discrepancies between the public, private, and voluntary sectors, most notably in relation to workforce and capacity issues, and that these discrepancies could ultimately limit the efficacy of the expansion. The thesis contributes to existing knowledge by using the most recently published 2019 Input-Output tables to estimate the costs and benefits of the expansion from 2018 onwards. As the roll out of the policy is now complete, it is possible to use accurate investment sums and levels of demand as opposed to approximations. Estimating first the national costs and benefits it includes a
regional analysis, focusing on a single municipality. The work brings together in one piece of research both the demand side impacts and the supply side issues of expanding Early Learning and Childcare within a U. K. region.

Date of Award	2023
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Glasgow Caledonian University
Supervisor	Emily Thomson (Supervisor) & Jim Campbell (Supervisor)