What sedentary behaviour intervention strategy? Can we learn from large scale computer simulation before trying them in real life?

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Introduction: Older adults are the most sedentary segment of society. Epidemiological evidence suggests that too much sedentary time has deleterious effect on health and wellbeing. The next stage on the research agenda is intervention studies to understand causation, dose response and develop effective interventions to modify sedentary behaviour. Aims: The aim of this study was to investigate the use of large-scale computer simulations to assess the effectiveness of different classes of interventions aimed at modifying sedentary behaviour. Method: The temporal behaviour of older adults is modelled using cyclical graph theory developed from empirical time series from the NHANES health survey. Different classes of interventions and different levels of adherence are simulated by changing the probability transition between states in the graphs. Monte Carlo techniques are used to sample response. Results: From the initial N = 1800 real profile, the method can generate N > 1 million ecologically valid and realistic responses to simple model of intervention. This, enables to theoretically explore more intervention scenario that physically possible in the real world. Discussion: Computer simulations have the potential to eliminate the need to test empirically all possible avenues and can be used as a filter to only concentrate on most promising method and better targeted interventions. Baseline empirical data for more specific population could be enriched with more contextual data to get more precise results
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationJournal Of Aging And Physical Activity
PagesS303-S303
Volume20
EditionSupplement 1
Publication statusPublished - 2012

Keywords

  • sedentary behaviour
  • intervention strategy
  • large scale computer simulation

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