Probabilistic analysis of interdependent infrastructures subjected to weather-related hazards

Dimitri V. Val, Richard Holden, Sarah Nodwell

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    Simulation of the infrastructure performance using numerical models may significantly assist in developing strategies for improving its resilience to harmful effects of climate change. This paper presents a model for simulating the performance of interdependent infrastructure systems based on an extended network flow approach, i.e. infrastructure systems are considered as a network of nodes connected by directed edges. The model has been specifically developed to simulate the infrastructure performance at a community scale and has higher node resolution compared to typical models of infrastructure systems at the national level. The model is time-dependent so that the infrastructure performance can be assessed at discrete points over a period of time. Parameters describing the performance of infrastructure assets (e.g. production and flow capacities, demands) can be treated as random variables or probabilities can be assigned to failures of the assets. The application of the model is illustrated by the probabilistic assessment of the performance of two interdependent infrastructure systems – electrical power and water, damaged by flooding.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)140-152
    Number of pages13
    JournalCivil Engineering and Environmental Systems
    Volume31
    Issue number2
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 9 May 2014

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    Keywords

    • infrastructure systems
    • climate change
    • network flow model
    • probabilistic analysis

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