Precision of actuarial risk assessment instruments: evaluating the `margins of error' of group v. individual predictions of violence

Stephen D. Hart, Christine Michie, David J. Cooke

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) estimate the probability that individuals will engage in future violence. The aim of this study was to evaluate the `margins of error' at the group and individual level for risk estimates made using ARAIs. An established statistical method was used to construct 95% CI for group and individual risk estimates made using two popular ARAIs.

Original languageEnglish
JournalBritish Journal of Psychiatry
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 May 2007

Keywords

  • actuarial risk assessment
  • predictions of violence

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