Abstract
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 211-221 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | International Journal of Drug Policy |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| Early online date | 3 Apr 2006 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Jun 2006 |
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Keywords
- hepatitis C virus
- Injecting drug use
- prevention
- harm reduction
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Modelling the spread of hepatitis C virus infection among injecting drug users in Glasgow: implications for prevention. / Hutchinson, Sharon J.; Bird, Sheila M.; Taylor, Avril; Goldberg, David J.
In: International Journal of Drug Policy, Vol. 17, No. 3, 06.2006, p. 211-221.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
TY - JOUR
T1 - Modelling the spread of hepatitis C virus infection among injecting drug users in Glasgow: implications for prevention
AU - Hutchinson, Sharon J.
AU - Bird, Sheila M.
AU - Taylor, Avril
AU - Goldberg, David J.
PY - 2006/6
Y1 - 2006/6
N2 - Stochastic simulation was used to model quantitatively the transmission of HCV through the sharing of used needles/syringes among IDUs in Glasgow. This combined information on (a) the incidence and cessation of injecting drug use, (b) the frequencies with which IDUs injected and shared needles/syringes, and (c) the susceptibility, transmissibility and carriage of HCV infection. The model that considered higher infectivity following infection produced seroprevalences (median: 62–72%) and incidences (18–30 per 100 susceptible injector-years) consistent with observed data during the 1990s. The annual number of new HCV infections among Glasgow IDUs was estimated to be low during 1960–1976 (median: 10–60), rise steeply during the early 1980s to peak in 1985 (1120), stabilise during 1991–1997 (510–610) and rise again during 1998–2000 (710–780). Scenario analyses indicated that 4500 HCV infections (10th–90th percentiles: 2400–7700) had potentially been prevented in Glasgow during 1988–2000 as a result of harm-reduction measures. Also, HCV incidence can be successfully reduced if IDUs who, unavoidably, share needles/syringes confine their borrowing to one person; with this strategy alone, an estimated 5300 HCV infections (10th–90th percentiles: 4100–6700) could have been averted in Glasgow during 1988–2000. Such insights will inform those responsible for developing new ways to prevent HCV transmission among IDU populations.
AB - Stochastic simulation was used to model quantitatively the transmission of HCV through the sharing of used needles/syringes among IDUs in Glasgow. This combined information on (a) the incidence and cessation of injecting drug use, (b) the frequencies with which IDUs injected and shared needles/syringes, and (c) the susceptibility, transmissibility and carriage of HCV infection. The model that considered higher infectivity following infection produced seroprevalences (median: 62–72%) and incidences (18–30 per 100 susceptible injector-years) consistent with observed data during the 1990s. The annual number of new HCV infections among Glasgow IDUs was estimated to be low during 1960–1976 (median: 10–60), rise steeply during the early 1980s to peak in 1985 (1120), stabilise during 1991–1997 (510–610) and rise again during 1998–2000 (710–780). Scenario analyses indicated that 4500 HCV infections (10th–90th percentiles: 2400–7700) had potentially been prevented in Glasgow during 1988–2000 as a result of harm-reduction measures. Also, HCV incidence can be successfully reduced if IDUs who, unavoidably, share needles/syringes confine their borrowing to one person; with this strategy alone, an estimated 5300 HCV infections (10th–90th percentiles: 4100–6700) could have been averted in Glasgow during 1988–2000. Such insights will inform those responsible for developing new ways to prevent HCV transmission among IDU populations.
KW - hepatitis C virus
KW - Injecting drug use
KW - prevention
KW - harm reduction
U2 - 10.1016/j.drugpo.2006.02.008
DO - 10.1016/j.drugpo.2006.02.008
M3 - Article
VL - 17
SP - 211
EP - 221
JO - International Journal of Drug Policy
JF - International Journal of Drug Policy
SN - 0955-3959
IS - 3
ER -