Modelling the impact of different tuberculosis control interventions on the prevalence of tuberculosis in an overcrowded prison

Herlianna Naning, Haider Abdulrazzaq Abed Al-Darraji, Scott McDonald, Noor Azina Ismail, Adeeba Kamarulzaman

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Abstract

The aim of this study was to simulate the effects of tuberculosis (TB) treatment strategies interventions in an overcrowded and poorly ventilated prison with both high (5 months) and low (3 years) turnover of inmates against improved environmental conditions. We used a deterministic transmission model to simulate the effects of treatment of latent TB infection and active TB, or the combination of both treatment strategies. Without any intervention, the TB prevalence is estimated to increase to 8.8% for a prison with low turnover of inmates but modestly stabilize at 5.8% for high-turnover prisons in a 10-year period. Reducing overcrowding from 6 to 4 inmates per housing cell and increasing the ventilation rate from 2 to 12 air changes per hour combined with any treatment strategy would further reduce the TB prevalence to as low as 0.98% for a prison with low inmate turnover.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)235-243
Number of pages9
JournalAsia Pacific Journal of Public Health
Volume30
Issue number3
Early online date4 Mar 2018
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Apr 2018

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Keywords

  • Malaysia
  • overcrowded prisons
  • tuberculosis
  • LTBI
  • inmates

Cite this

Naning, H., Al-Darraji, H. A. A., McDonald, S., Ismail, N. A., & Kamarulzaman, A. (2018). Modelling the impact of different tuberculosis control interventions on the prevalence of tuberculosis in an overcrowded prison. Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, 30(3), 235-243. https://doi.org/10.1177/1010539518757229