Limitations of diagnostic precision and predictive utility in the individual case: a challenge for forensic practice

David Cooke, Christine Michie

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Knowledge of group tendencies may not assist accurate predictions in the individual case. This has importance for forensic decision making and for the assessment tools routinely applied in forensic evaluations. In this article, we applied Monte Carlo methods to examine diagnostic agreement with different levels of inter-rater agreement given the distributional characteristics of PCL-R scores. Diagnostic agreement and score agreement were substantially less than expected. In addition, we examined the confidence intervals associated with individual predictions of violent recidivism.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)259-274
Number of pages15
JournalLaw and Human Behavior
Volume34
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2010

Keywords

  • forensic practice
  • decision making
  • forensic evaluation
  • recidivism

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