Using Bayesian capture–recapture analysis, we estimated the number of current injecting drug users (IDUs) in Scotland in 2006 from the cross-counts of 5670 IDUs listed on four data-sources: social enquiry reports (901 IDUs listed), hospital records (953), drug treatment agencies (3504), and recent Hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnoses (827 listed as IDU-risk). Further, we accessed exact numbers of opiate-related drugs-related deaths (DRDs) in 2006 and 2007 to improve estimation of Scotland's DRD rates per 100 current IDUs. Using all four data-sources, and model-averaging of standard hierarchical log-linear models to allow for pairwise interactions between data-sources and/or demographic classifications, Scotland had an estimated 31700 IDUs in 2006 (95% credible interval: 24900–38700); but 25000 IDUs (95% CI: 20700–35000) by excluding recent HCV diagnoses whose IDU-risk can refer to past injecting.
- injecting drug users
King, R., Bird, S. M., Overstall, A., Hay, G., & Hutchinson, S. (2013). Injecting drug users in Scotland, 2006: listing, number, demography, and opiate-related death-rates. Addiction Research and Theory, 21(3), 235-246. https://doi.org/10.3109/16066359.2012.706344