Injecting drug users in Scotland, 2006: listing, number, demography, and opiate-related death-rates

Ruth King, Sheila M Bird, Antony Overstall, Gordon Hay, Sharon Hutchinson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Using Bayesian capture–recapture analysis, we estimated the number of current injecting drug users (IDUs) in Scotland in 2006 from the cross-counts of 5670 IDUs listed on four data-sources: social enquiry reports (901 IDUs listed), hospital records (953), drug treatment agencies (3504), and recent Hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnoses (827 listed as IDU-risk). Further, we accessed exact numbers of opiate-related drugs-related deaths (DRDs) in 2006 and 2007 to improve estimation of Scotland's DRD rates per 100 current IDUs. Using all four data-sources, and model-averaging of standard hierarchical log-linear models to allow for pairwise interactions between data-sources and/or demographic classifications, Scotland had an estimated 31700 IDUs in 2006 (95% credible interval: 24900–38700); but 25000 IDUs (95% CI: 20700–35000) by excluding recent HCV diagnoses whose IDU-risk can refer to past injecting.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)235-246
Number of pages12
JournalAddiction Research and Theory
Volume21
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

Keywords

  • epidemiology
  • injecting drug users
  • Scotland

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