Feedback-labelling synergies in judgmental stock price forecasting

Paul Goodwin, Dilek Önkal-Atay, Mary E. Thomson, Andrew C. Pollock, Alex Macaulay

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Research has suggested that outcome feedback is less effective than other forms of feedback in promoting learning by users of decision support systems. However, if circumstances can be identified where the effectiveness of outcome feedback can be improved, this offers considerable advantages, given its lower computational demands, ease of understanding and immediacy. An experiment in stock price forecasting was used to compare the effectiveness of outcome and performance feedback: (i) when different forms of probability forecast were required, and (ii) with and without the presence of contextual information provided as labels. For interval forecasts, the effectiveness of outcome feedback came close to that of performance feedback, as long as labels were provided. For directional probability forecasts, outcome feedback was not effective, even if labels were supplied. Implications are discussed and future research directions are suggested.

Original languageEnglish
JournalDecision Support Systems
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Apr 2004

Keywords

  • judgment
  • forecasting
  • calibration
  • stock price

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