Failure prediction of power cables using failure history and operational conditions

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter (peer-reviewed)

Abstract

This paper classifies the causes of cable failures according to two types: unpredictable random causes; and predictable ageing effects. A piecewise power-law non-homogeneous Poisson process and a stochastic electro-thermal model are proposed to predict total annual failures and failures due specifically to ageing, respectively. An amalgamation of the two models is then used to estimate the number of failures attributable to random causes or ageing. The proposed method is successfully applied to real data of vintage unjacketed XLPE cables. The results show that these cables have an expected lifespan of 39 years based on ageing effects alone; however, failure of these cables is dominated by random failure modes such as manufacturing defects, sudden shock, or water and electrical tree, which cause many of these cables to fail earlier in their life.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProperties and Applications of Dielectric Materials (ICPADM), 2015 IEEE 11th International Conference on the
Place of PublicationSydney, NSW
PublisherIEEE
Pages380-383
Number of pages4
ISBN (Electronic)9781479989034
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Oct 2015

Fingerprint

Cables
Aging of materials
Failure modes
Defects
Water

Keywords

  • XLPE insulation
  • ageing
  • failure analysis
  • power cable insulation
  • prediction theory
  • stochastic processes
  • failure history
  • operational conditions
  • piecewise power-law nonhomogeneous Poisson process
  • power cable failure prediction
  • predictable ageing effects
  • stochastic electrothermal model
  • total annual failure prediction
  • unpredictable random causes
  • vintage unjacketed XLPE cable
  • Aging
  • Cable insulation
  • Communication cables
  • Data models
  • Degradation
  • Power cables
  • Stress
  • electro-thermal
  • poisson process
  • random failure

Cite this

Sachan, S., Zhou, C., Bevan, G., & Alkali, B. (2015). Failure prediction of power cables using failure history and operational conditions. In Properties and Applications of Dielectric Materials (ICPADM), 2015 IEEE 11th International Conference on the (pp. 380-383). Sydney, NSW: IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICPADM.2015.7295288
Sachan, Swati ; Zhou, Chengke ; Bevan, Geraint ; Alkali, Babakalli. / Failure prediction of power cables using failure history and operational conditions. Properties and Applications of Dielectric Materials (ICPADM), 2015 IEEE 11th International Conference on the. Sydney, NSW : IEEE, 2015. pp. 380-383
@inbook{66ead1f8d9f64d5a943d47a0a1450a7f,
title = "Failure prediction of power cables using failure history and operational conditions",
abstract = "This paper classifies the causes of cable failures according to two types: unpredictable random causes; and predictable ageing effects. A piecewise power-law non-homogeneous Poisson process and a stochastic electro-thermal model are proposed to predict total annual failures and failures due specifically to ageing, respectively. An amalgamation of the two models is then used to estimate the number of failures attributable to random causes or ageing. The proposed method is successfully applied to real data of vintage unjacketed XLPE cables. The results show that these cables have an expected lifespan of 39 years based on ageing effects alone; however, failure of these cables is dominated by random failure modes such as manufacturing defects, sudden shock, or water and electrical tree, which cause many of these cables to fail earlier in their life.",
keywords = "XLPE insulation, ageing, failure analysis, power cable insulation, prediction theory, stochastic processes, failure history, operational conditions, piecewise power-law nonhomogeneous Poisson process, power cable failure prediction, predictable ageing effects, stochastic electrothermal model, total annual failure prediction, unpredictable random causes, vintage unjacketed XLPE cable, Aging, Cable insulation, Communication cables, Data models, Degradation, Power cables, Stress, electro-thermal, poisson process, random failure",
author = "Swati Sachan and Chengke Zhou and Geraint Bevan and Babakalli Alkali",
year = "2015",
month = "10",
day = "15",
doi = "10.1109/ICPADM.2015.7295288",
language = "English",
pages = "380--383",
booktitle = "Properties and Applications of Dielectric Materials (ICPADM), 2015 IEEE 11th International Conference on the",
publisher = "IEEE",

}

Sachan, S, Zhou, C, Bevan, G & Alkali, B 2015, Failure prediction of power cables using failure history and operational conditions. in Properties and Applications of Dielectric Materials (ICPADM), 2015 IEEE 11th International Conference on the. IEEE, Sydney, NSW, pp. 380-383. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICPADM.2015.7295288

Failure prediction of power cables using failure history and operational conditions. / Sachan, Swati; Zhou, Chengke; Bevan, Geraint; Alkali, Babakalli.

Properties and Applications of Dielectric Materials (ICPADM), 2015 IEEE 11th International Conference on the. Sydney, NSW : IEEE, 2015. p. 380-383.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter (peer-reviewed)

TY - CHAP

T1 - Failure prediction of power cables using failure history and operational conditions

AU - Sachan, Swati

AU - Zhou, Chengke

AU - Bevan, Geraint

AU - Alkali, Babakalli

PY - 2015/10/15

Y1 - 2015/10/15

N2 - This paper classifies the causes of cable failures according to two types: unpredictable random causes; and predictable ageing effects. A piecewise power-law non-homogeneous Poisson process and a stochastic electro-thermal model are proposed to predict total annual failures and failures due specifically to ageing, respectively. An amalgamation of the two models is then used to estimate the number of failures attributable to random causes or ageing. The proposed method is successfully applied to real data of vintage unjacketed XLPE cables. The results show that these cables have an expected lifespan of 39 years based on ageing effects alone; however, failure of these cables is dominated by random failure modes such as manufacturing defects, sudden shock, or water and electrical tree, which cause many of these cables to fail earlier in their life.

AB - This paper classifies the causes of cable failures according to two types: unpredictable random causes; and predictable ageing effects. A piecewise power-law non-homogeneous Poisson process and a stochastic electro-thermal model are proposed to predict total annual failures and failures due specifically to ageing, respectively. An amalgamation of the two models is then used to estimate the number of failures attributable to random causes or ageing. The proposed method is successfully applied to real data of vintage unjacketed XLPE cables. The results show that these cables have an expected lifespan of 39 years based on ageing effects alone; however, failure of these cables is dominated by random failure modes such as manufacturing defects, sudden shock, or water and electrical tree, which cause many of these cables to fail earlier in their life.

KW - XLPE insulation

KW - ageing

KW - failure analysis

KW - power cable insulation

KW - prediction theory

KW - stochastic processes

KW - failure history

KW - operational conditions

KW - piecewise power-law nonhomogeneous Poisson process

KW - power cable failure prediction

KW - predictable ageing effects

KW - stochastic electrothermal model

KW - total annual failure prediction

KW - unpredictable random causes

KW - vintage unjacketed XLPE cable

KW - Aging

KW - Cable insulation

KW - Communication cables

KW - Data models

KW - Degradation

KW - Power cables

KW - Stress

KW - electro-thermal

KW - poisson process

KW - random failure

U2 - 10.1109/ICPADM.2015.7295288

DO - 10.1109/ICPADM.2015.7295288

M3 - Chapter (peer-reviewed)

SP - 380

EP - 383

BT - Properties and Applications of Dielectric Materials (ICPADM), 2015 IEEE 11th International Conference on the

PB - IEEE

CY - Sydney, NSW

ER -

Sachan S, Zhou C, Bevan G, Alkali B. Failure prediction of power cables using failure history and operational conditions. In Properties and Applications of Dielectric Materials (ICPADM), 2015 IEEE 11th International Conference on the. Sydney, NSW: IEEE. 2015. p. 380-383 https://doi.org/10.1109/ICPADM.2015.7295288