Estimating the number of people with hepatitis C virus who have ever injected drugs and have yet to be diagnosed: an evidence synthesis approach for Scotland

Teresa C. Prevost; Anne M. Presanis; Avril Taylor; David J. Goldberg; Sharon J. Hutchinson; Daniela De Angelis

doi:10.1111/add.12948

Estimating the number of people with hepatitis C virus who have ever injected drugs and have yet to be diagnosed: an evidence synthesis approach for Scotland

Teresa C. Prevost^*, Anne M. Presanis, Avril Taylor, David J. Goldberg, Sharon J. Hutchinson, Daniela De Angelis

^*Corresponding author for this work

SHLS School Office

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Abstract

Aims

To estimate the number of people who have ever injected drugs (defined here as PWID) living in Scotland in 2009 who have been infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) and to quantify and characterize the population remaining undiagnosed.
Methods

Information from routine surveillance (n¿=¿22¿616) and survey data (n¿=¿2511) was combined using a multiparameter evidence synthesis approach to estimate the size of the PWID population, HCV antibody prevalence and the proportion of HCV antibody prevalent cases who have been diagnosed, in subgroups defined by recency of injecting (in the last year or not), age (15–34 and 35–64¿years), gender and region of residence (Greater Glasgow and Clyde and the rest of Scotland).
Results

HCV antibody-prevalence among PWID in Scotland during 2009 was estimated to be 57% [95% CI=52-61%], corresponding to 46¿657 [95% credible interval (CI)¿=¿33¿812–66¿803] prevalent cases. Of these, 27¿434 (95% CI¿=¿14¿636–47¿564) were undiagnosed, representing 59% [95% CI=43-71%] of prevalent cases. Among the undiagnosed, 83% (95% CI¿=¿75–89%) were PWID who had not injected in the last year and 71% (95% CI¿=¿58–85%) were aged 35–64 years.
Conclusions

The number of undiagnosed hepatitis C virus-infected cases in Scotland appears to be particularly high among those who have injected drugs more than 1¿year ago and are more than 35¿years old.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1287-1300
Number of pages	14
Journal	Addiction
Volume	110
Issue number	8
Early online date	8 Jun 2015
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/add.12948
Publication status	Published - Aug 2015

Keywords

hepatitis C
evidence synthesis
people who inject drugs
prevalence

Documents and Links

10.1111/add.12948

Prevost, T.C. et al (2015) Estimating the number of people with hepatitis C virus who have ever injected drugs and have yet to be diagnosed
This is the publisher's version of an article published in Addiction by Wiley. Available here: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/add.12948/epdf Copyright: © 2015 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of Addiction. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium,provided the original work is properly cited.
Final published version, 1.01 MBLicence: CC BY

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@article{bfe65eb292cd4465ad084c3a32ceeb39,

title = "Estimating the number of people with hepatitis C virus who have ever injected drugs and have yet to be diagnosed: an evidence synthesis approach for Scotland",

abstract = "AimsTo estimate the number of people who have ever injected drugs (defined here as PWID) living in Scotland in 2009 who have been infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) and to quantify and characterize the population remaining undiagnosed.MethodsInformation from routine surveillance (n¿=¿22¿616) and survey data (n¿=¿2511) was combined using a multiparameter evidence synthesis approach to estimate the size of the PWID population, HCV antibody prevalence and the proportion of HCV antibody prevalent cases who have been diagnosed, in subgroups defined by recency of injecting (in the last year or not), age (15–34 and 35–64¿years), gender and region of residence (Greater Glasgow and Clyde and the rest of Scotland).ResultsHCV antibody-prevalence among PWID in Scotland during 2009 was estimated to be 57% [95% CI=52-61%], corresponding to 46¿657 [95% credible interval (CI)¿=¿33¿812–66¿803] prevalent cases. Of these, 27¿434 (95% CI¿=¿14¿636–47¿564) were undiagnosed, representing 59% [95% CI=43-71%] of prevalent cases. Among the undiagnosed, 83% (95% CI¿=¿75–89%) were PWID who had not injected in the last year and 71% (95% CI¿=¿58–85%) were aged 35–64 years.ConclusionsThe number of undiagnosed hepatitis C virus-infected cases in Scotland appears to be particularly high among those who have injected drugs more than 1¿year ago and are more than 35¿years old.",

keywords = "hepatitis C, evidence synthesis, people who inject drugs, prevalence",

author = "Prevost, {Teresa C.} and Presanis, {Anne M.} and Avril Taylor and Goldberg, {David J.} and Hutchinson, {Sharon J.} and {De Angelis}, Daniela",

year = "2015",

month = aug,

doi = "10.1111/add.12948",

language = "English",

volume = "110",

pages = "1287--1300",

journal = "Addiction",

issn = "0965-2140",

publisher = "Wiley",

number = "8",

}

Estimating the number of people with hepatitis C virus who have ever injected drugs and have yet to be diagnosed: an evidence synthesis approach for Scotland. / Prevost, Teresa C.; Presanis, Anne M.; Taylor, Avril; Goldberg, David J.; Hutchinson, Sharon J.; De Angelis, Daniela.

In: Addiction, Vol. 110, No. 8, 08.2015, p. 1287-1300.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimating the number of people with hepatitis C virus who have ever injected drugs and have yet to be diagnosed: an evidence synthesis approach for Scotland

AU - Prevost, Teresa C.

AU - Presanis, Anne M.

AU - Taylor, Avril

AU - Goldberg, David J.

AU - Hutchinson, Sharon J.

AU - De Angelis, Daniela

PY - 2015/8

Y1 - 2015/8

N2 - AimsTo estimate the number of people who have ever injected drugs (defined here as PWID) living in Scotland in 2009 who have been infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) and to quantify and characterize the population remaining undiagnosed.MethodsInformation from routine surveillance (n¿=¿22¿616) and survey data (n¿=¿2511) was combined using a multiparameter evidence synthesis approach to estimate the size of the PWID population, HCV antibody prevalence and the proportion of HCV antibody prevalent cases who have been diagnosed, in subgroups defined by recency of injecting (in the last year or not), age (15–34 and 35–64¿years), gender and region of residence (Greater Glasgow and Clyde and the rest of Scotland).ResultsHCV antibody-prevalence among PWID in Scotland during 2009 was estimated to be 57% [95% CI=52-61%], corresponding to 46¿657 [95% credible interval (CI)¿=¿33¿812–66¿803] prevalent cases. Of these, 27¿434 (95% CI¿=¿14¿636–47¿564) were undiagnosed, representing 59% [95% CI=43-71%] of prevalent cases. Among the undiagnosed, 83% (95% CI¿=¿75–89%) were PWID who had not injected in the last year and 71% (95% CI¿=¿58–85%) were aged 35–64 years.ConclusionsThe number of undiagnosed hepatitis C virus-infected cases in Scotland appears to be particularly high among those who have injected drugs more than 1¿year ago and are more than 35¿years old.

AB - AimsTo estimate the number of people who have ever injected drugs (defined here as PWID) living in Scotland in 2009 who have been infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) and to quantify and characterize the population remaining undiagnosed.MethodsInformation from routine surveillance (n¿=¿22¿616) and survey data (n¿=¿2511) was combined using a multiparameter evidence synthesis approach to estimate the size of the PWID population, HCV antibody prevalence and the proportion of HCV antibody prevalent cases who have been diagnosed, in subgroups defined by recency of injecting (in the last year or not), age (15–34 and 35–64¿years), gender and region of residence (Greater Glasgow and Clyde and the rest of Scotland).ResultsHCV antibody-prevalence among PWID in Scotland during 2009 was estimated to be 57% [95% CI=52-61%], corresponding to 46¿657 [95% credible interval (CI)¿=¿33¿812–66¿803] prevalent cases. Of these, 27¿434 (95% CI¿=¿14¿636–47¿564) were undiagnosed, representing 59% [95% CI=43-71%] of prevalent cases. Among the undiagnosed, 83% (95% CI¿=¿75–89%) were PWID who had not injected in the last year and 71% (95% CI¿=¿58–85%) were aged 35–64 years.ConclusionsThe number of undiagnosed hepatitis C virus-infected cases in Scotland appears to be particularly high among those who have injected drugs more than 1¿year ago and are more than 35¿years old.

KW - hepatitis C

KW - evidence synthesis

KW - people who inject drugs

KW - prevalence

U2 - 10.1111/add.12948

DO - 10.1111/add.12948

M3 - Article

VL - 110

SP - 1287

EP - 1300

JO - Addiction

JF - Addiction

SN - 0965-2140

IS - 8

ER -