Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: analysis of nationwide serosurvey data in the Netherlands

Scott A. McDonald*, Fuminari Miura, Eric R.A. Vos, Michiel van Boven, Hester E. de Melker, Fiona R.M. van der Klis, Rob S. van Binnendijk, Gerco den Hartog, Jacco Wallinga

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

12 Citations (Scopus)
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Abstract

Background: The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 positive persons who are asymptomatic—and whether this proportion is age-dependent—are still open research questions. Because an unknown proportion of reported symptoms among SARS-CoV-2 positives will be attributable to another infection or affliction, the observed, or 'crude' proportion without symptoms may underestimate the proportion of persons without symptoms that are caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: Based on two rounds of a large population-based serological study comprising test results on seropositivity and self-reported symptom history conducted in April/May and June/July 2020 in the Netherlands (n = 7517), we estimated the proportion of reported symptoms among those persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 that is attributable to this infection, where the set of relevant symptoms fulfills the ECDC case definition of COVID-19, using inferential methods for the attributable risk (AR). Generalised additive regression modelling was used to estimate the age-dependent relative risk (RR) of reported symptoms, and the AR and asymptomatic proportion (AP) were calculated from the fitted RR. Results: Using age-aggregated data, the 'crude' AP was 37% but the model-estimated AP was 65% (95% CI 63–68%). The estimated AP varied with age, from 74% (95% CI 65–90%) for < 20 years, to 61% (95% CI 57–65%) for the 50–59 years age-group. Conclusion: Whereas the 'crude' AP represents a lower bound for the proportion of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 without COVID-19 symptoms, the AP as estimated via an attributable risk approach represents an upper bound. Age-specific AP estimates can inform the implementation of public health actions such as targetted virological testing and therefore enhance containment strategies.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)735-739
Number of pages5
JournalEuropean Journal of Epidemiology
Volume36
Issue number7
Early online date10 Jun 2021
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2021
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Asymptomatic disease
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Serosurvey
  • The Netherlands

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Epidemiology

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