Using real financial data, this study examines the influence of trend direction and strength on judgmental exchange rate forecasting performance and consistency. Participants generated forecasts for each of 20 series. Half of the participants also answered two additional questions regarding their perceptions about the strength and direction of the trend present in each of the series under consideration. The performance on ascending trends was found to be superior to that on descending trends, and the performance on intermediate trends was found to be superior to that on strong trends.
- exchange rate forecasting
Thomson, M., Pollock, A. C., Gönül, M. S., & Önkal, D. (2013). Effects of trend strength and direction on performance and consistency in judgmental exchange rate forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 29(2), 337–353. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.03.004