Cost-effectiveness analysis of eliminating industrial and all trans fats in England and Wales: modelling study

Jonathon Pearson-Stuttard, William Hooton, Julia Critchley, Simon Capewell, Marissa Collins, Helen Mason, Maria Guzman-Castillo, Martin O'Flaherty

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

94 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Introduction
Coronary heart disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of UK mortality. Dietary trans fats (TFA) represent a powerful CHD risk factor. However, UK efforts to reduce intake have been less successful than other nations. We modelled the potential health and economic effects of eliminating industrial and all TFA up to 2020.

Methods
We extended the previously validated IMPACTsec model, to estimate the potential effects on health and economic outcomes of mandatory reformulation or a complete ban on dietary TFA in England and Wales from 2011 to 2020.
We modelled two policy scenarios:
1) Elimination of industrial TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0.4% daily energy
2) Elimination of all TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0%

Results
Elimination of industrial TFA across the England and Wales population could result in approximately 1600 fewer deaths per year, with some 4000 fewer hospital admissions; gaining approximately 14 000 additional life years. Health inequalities would be substantially reduced in both scenarios. Elimination of industrial TFA would be cost saving. This would include approximately £100 m saved in direct healthcare costs. Elimination of all TFA would double the health and economic gains.

Conclusions
Eliminating industrial or all UK dietary intake of TFA could substantially reduce CHD mortality and inequalities, while resulting in substantial annual savings.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)574-582
Number of pages9
JournalJournal of Public Health
Volume39
Issue number3
Early online date9 Sep 2016
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2017

Fingerprint

Wales
England
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Fats
Dietary Fats
Economics
Health
Mortality
Health Care Costs
Heart Diseases
Costs and Cost Analysis
Population

Keywords

  • trans fats
  • industrial fats
  • coronary heart disease
  • coronary heart disease burden
  • cost-effectiveness
  • modelling
  • socioeconomic status

Cite this

Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathon ; Hooton, William ; Critchley, Julia ; Capewell, Simon ; Collins, Marissa ; Mason, Helen ; Guzman-Castillo, Maria ; O'Flaherty, Martin. / Cost-effectiveness analysis of eliminating industrial and all trans fats in England and Wales: modelling study. In: Journal of Public Health. 2017 ; Vol. 39, No. 3. pp. 574-582.
@article{8fc37f36ec6a4e01ab2cfd2981138ac1,
title = "Cost-effectiveness analysis of eliminating industrial and all trans fats in England and Wales: modelling study",
abstract = "IntroductionCoronary heart disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of UK mortality. Dietary trans fats (TFA) represent a powerful CHD risk factor. However, UK efforts to reduce intake have been less successful than other nations. We modelled the potential health and economic effects of eliminating industrial and all TFA up to 2020.MethodsWe extended the previously validated IMPACTsec model, to estimate the potential effects on health and economic outcomes of mandatory reformulation or a complete ban on dietary TFA in England and Wales from 2011 to 2020.We modelled two policy scenarios:1) Elimination of industrial TFA consumption, from 0.8{\%} to 0.4{\%} daily energy2) Elimination of all TFA consumption, from 0.8{\%} to 0{\%}ResultsElimination of industrial TFA across the England and Wales population could result in approximately 1600 fewer deaths per year, with some 4000 fewer hospital admissions; gaining approximately 14 000 additional life years. Health inequalities would be substantially reduced in both scenarios. Elimination of industrial TFA would be cost saving. This would include approximately £100 m saved in direct healthcare costs. Elimination of all TFA would double the health and economic gains.ConclusionsEliminating industrial or all UK dietary intake of TFA could substantially reduce CHD mortality and inequalities, while resulting in substantial annual savings.",
keywords = "trans fats , industrial fats, coronary heart disease, coronary heart disease burden, cost-effectiveness, modelling, socioeconomic status",
author = "Jonathon Pearson-Stuttard and William Hooton and Julia Critchley and Simon Capewell and Marissa Collins and Helen Mason and Maria Guzman-Castillo and Martin O'Flaherty",
note = "Accepted: 28/7/16 (in SAN) Online pub: 16/9/16 AAM: not yet uploaded, contacted author 16/9/16, provided 29/9/16 Funding source note from file mentions MRC funded: This project was funded by the MRC NPRI3 scheme, & EU MedCHAMPS project financed by EC FP7 grant no. 223705. Title: Prevention IMPACT: developing and evaluating economic models for planning optimal cardiovascular prevention strategies. This project was also a School of Public Health funded project: SPHR-LIL-PH1-MCD Sherpa/FACT: embargo of 12m exceeds 6m required by MRC",
year = "2017",
month = "9",
doi = "10.1093/pubmed/fdw095",
language = "English",
volume = "39",
pages = "574--582",
journal = "Journal of Public Health",
issn = "1741-3842",
publisher = "Springer Verlag",
number = "3",

}

Pearson-Stuttard, J, Hooton, W, Critchley, J, Capewell, S, Collins, M, Mason, H, Guzman-Castillo, M & O'Flaherty, M 2017, 'Cost-effectiveness analysis of eliminating industrial and all trans fats in England and Wales: modelling study', Journal of Public Health, vol. 39, no. 3, pp. 574-582. https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdw095

Cost-effectiveness analysis of eliminating industrial and all trans fats in England and Wales: modelling study. / Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathon; Hooton, William ; Critchley, Julia; Capewell, Simon; Collins, Marissa; Mason, Helen; Guzman-Castillo, Maria; O'Flaherty, Martin.

In: Journal of Public Health, Vol. 39, No. 3, 09.2017, p. 574-582.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Cost-effectiveness analysis of eliminating industrial and all trans fats in England and Wales: modelling study

AU - Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathon

AU - Hooton, William

AU - Critchley, Julia

AU - Capewell, Simon

AU - Collins, Marissa

AU - Mason, Helen

AU - Guzman-Castillo, Maria

AU - O'Flaherty, Martin

N1 - Accepted: 28/7/16 (in SAN) Online pub: 16/9/16 AAM: not yet uploaded, contacted author 16/9/16, provided 29/9/16 Funding source note from file mentions MRC funded: This project was funded by the MRC NPRI3 scheme, & EU MedCHAMPS project financed by EC FP7 grant no. 223705. Title: Prevention IMPACT: developing and evaluating economic models for planning optimal cardiovascular prevention strategies. This project was also a School of Public Health funded project: SPHR-LIL-PH1-MCD Sherpa/FACT: embargo of 12m exceeds 6m required by MRC

PY - 2017/9

Y1 - 2017/9

N2 - IntroductionCoronary heart disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of UK mortality. Dietary trans fats (TFA) represent a powerful CHD risk factor. However, UK efforts to reduce intake have been less successful than other nations. We modelled the potential health and economic effects of eliminating industrial and all TFA up to 2020.MethodsWe extended the previously validated IMPACTsec model, to estimate the potential effects on health and economic outcomes of mandatory reformulation or a complete ban on dietary TFA in England and Wales from 2011 to 2020.We modelled two policy scenarios:1) Elimination of industrial TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0.4% daily energy2) Elimination of all TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0%ResultsElimination of industrial TFA across the England and Wales population could result in approximately 1600 fewer deaths per year, with some 4000 fewer hospital admissions; gaining approximately 14 000 additional life years. Health inequalities would be substantially reduced in both scenarios. Elimination of industrial TFA would be cost saving. This would include approximately £100 m saved in direct healthcare costs. Elimination of all TFA would double the health and economic gains.ConclusionsEliminating industrial or all UK dietary intake of TFA could substantially reduce CHD mortality and inequalities, while resulting in substantial annual savings.

AB - IntroductionCoronary heart disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of UK mortality. Dietary trans fats (TFA) represent a powerful CHD risk factor. However, UK efforts to reduce intake have been less successful than other nations. We modelled the potential health and economic effects of eliminating industrial and all TFA up to 2020.MethodsWe extended the previously validated IMPACTsec model, to estimate the potential effects on health and economic outcomes of mandatory reformulation or a complete ban on dietary TFA in England and Wales from 2011 to 2020.We modelled two policy scenarios:1) Elimination of industrial TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0.4% daily energy2) Elimination of all TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0%ResultsElimination of industrial TFA across the England and Wales population could result in approximately 1600 fewer deaths per year, with some 4000 fewer hospital admissions; gaining approximately 14 000 additional life years. Health inequalities would be substantially reduced in both scenarios. Elimination of industrial TFA would be cost saving. This would include approximately £100 m saved in direct healthcare costs. Elimination of all TFA would double the health and economic gains.ConclusionsEliminating industrial or all UK dietary intake of TFA could substantially reduce CHD mortality and inequalities, while resulting in substantial annual savings.

KW - trans fats

KW - industrial fats

KW - coronary heart disease

KW - coronary heart disease burden

KW - cost-effectiveness

KW - modelling

KW - socioeconomic status

U2 - 10.1093/pubmed/fdw095

DO - 10.1093/pubmed/fdw095

M3 - Article

VL - 39

SP - 574

EP - 582

JO - Journal of Public Health

JF - Journal of Public Health

SN - 1741-3842

IS - 3

ER -