Comparison of the Weibull and the Crow-AMSSA model in prediction of early failures among power cables

Zeyang Tang, Wenjun Zhou, Jiankang Zhao, Dajiang Wang, Leiqi Zhang, Haizhi Liu, Yang Yang, Chengke Zhou

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    Abstract

    This paper compares the application of the Weibull distribution and the Crow-AMSAA (C-A) model to the analysis of cable joint failures. The procedures of how to use the two models to analyze failure data and to predict future number of failures have been described before the models are applied to a set of early-failure data. The data which include 16 failures and 1126 suspensions were collected from a regional power supply company in China. It is observed that the Weibull and the C-A model produce opposite results in terms of ß value when the dataset contains failures of multiple years where the failure rate in early years differs significantly from those in later period. The paper shows that, when applying the C-A model, separating those data into subsections and analyzing them independently can yield useful information. Recent failure data can better reflect the current state of cable joints. The paper also proves that the Weibull distribution provides more reliable results in the analysis of early-failure data. The results of this paper should help utility asset managers to better analyze their past failure data.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)2410-2418
    Number of pages9
    JournalIEEE Transactions on Power Delivery
    Volume30
    Issue number6
    Early online date2 Mar 2015
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Dec 2015

    Keywords

    • cable failure analysis
    • weibull model
    • crow-amssa

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