一种电力电缆的随机电热退化模型（英文）

In this paper a methodology is proposed to model the stochastic electro-thermal degradation accumulation in cables. The cable life and the reliability are predicted by estimating the accumulated electro-thermal degradation during seasonal load cycles. The degradation is considered, in a novel approach, as stochastic in nature due to variations in the manufacturing process of insulation raw material and in operational and environmental conditions. The methodology is based on estimation of life by using combined electro-thermal life model, simulation of degradation accumulation process under electro-thermal stress in each season of the year based on Miner's cumulative damage theory and reliability prediction from a probabilistic point of view. A case study is demonstrated on 10 kV XLPE cables which are directly buried in the UK and China.Results show that, the electro-thermal life of the cable is 56 and 69 years in China and the UK, respectively at 50% failure probability, or the life of the cable in the UK would be 13 years longer than in China, when other stresses such as mechanical and environmental are also considered and assumed to be the same.