Modelling and Evaluating the Impact of Interventions for the Prevention of Drug-related Deaths in the Population in Scotland

Overdose deaths (OD) have more than trebled in Scotland and doubled in the rest of UK in the last decade. OD are a public health crisis in Scotland which has the highest rates in Europe. Studies show that treatment of heroin and opioid addiction with replacement drugs (such as methadone or buprenorphine – called “opioid agonist treatment” or OAT) can reduce the risk of overdose death by over 50%. Naloxone prevents a fatal overdose if given to people who have trouble breathing after using opioids. OAT is widely available and since 2011 Scotland has given out over 90,000 naloxone kits. Yet overdose deaths have continued to rise. More needs to be done to prevent OD and reverse current trends. We propose creating a epidemiological, mathematical and economic models that will help citizens, health care workers, researchers and policy makers assess how effective the current interventions have been at saving OD deaths and then identify what else can be done to reduce OD in the population.